Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
